New Feature – Impact of Vote Share Swing

Posted on April 04,2013


As anyone who closely follows electoral politics in India would be aware, a small swing in vote share could result in massive change in seat share. In 2009 Lok Sabha elections Congress increased its tally by 42% compared to 2004, despite a vote share increase of just 2.1%. There is no simple formula to calculate impact of vote share change on the number of seats. Change in seat share also depends on factors like coalition, division of opposition votes etc.

We have tried here to gauge the impact of change in vote share of parties compared to last election. It covers the last assembly elections of all states and the last lok sabha election. So if you choose a positive swing of 4% for BJP, all the seats that BJP lost by a margin less than or equal to 4%, would be added to its tally. The additional seats would be displayed on the right hand side of the page. Just like other features of Indiavotes, this feature can be used to even analyze lok sabha results at state level.

Do explore this page and you would be surprised to see the impact of minor swings. For example a positive swing of just 4% increases the seat tally of BJP to 160 from 116 now whereas a negative swing of 6% reduces Congress tally to 113 from 206.